Israel tells US Iran may use chemical weapons, but Washington splits on intel

US policymakers face a split decision on the credibility of intelligence shared by Israel regarding Iran's chemical weapons capabilities. The information arrived as Washington and Tehran negotiated a potential diplomatic deal while military forces positioned for an attack.

Israeli intelligence officials told their American counterparts that Iran is rapidly advancing technology to mount chemical agents on missiles or smuggle them into Israel. They argue this development could allow Tehran to strike US interests or its neighbors. Some senior US officials received the data with concern, viewing it as a serious escalation of the conflict.

Other American officials expressed deep skepticism. They view the intelligence as a pressure campaign by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to convince the Trump administration to resume large-scale fighting. Several Gulf state officials who received the data questioned its validity. One regional official stated that Israel presented assessments without supporting evidence, leading Gulf governments to regard the claims as lacking seriousness.

The central dispute within the US intelligence community is not whether Iran is developing chemical weapons, but whether Iranian leaders would actually use them. For some officials, the warnings revived memories of the faulty intelligence regarding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in 2002. At that time, US agencies presented a firm assessment that Iraq possessed such weapons, even though the country had largely abandoned its programs.

US Central Command has a plan for an attack on Iran that could occur as early as Wednesday, November 4. This date is one day after the US midterm elections. Three American aircraft carriers are currently in the region. The preferred operational window is expected to be brief because one carrier must return to its home port after the beginning of November. Dark nights in the coming days provide favorable conditions for military operations.

Despite the intelligence warnings, chemical weapons response is not a central component of the Home Front Command exercises taking place across Israel this week. Two officials said there have been no widespread reminders distributed to officers or the public regarding protective instructions. The Israel Defense Forces declined to comment on the matter.

Diplomats are attempting to formulate an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address Iran's nuclear program. The military buildup may also serve to support these diplomatic efforts. US intelligence agencies assess that the threat to Americans in the Middle East is at its highest level since the war began in February. This follows an uncovered Iranian plot to attack a base in Britain used by American fighter jets.

Tehran denies possessing chemical weapons and has described such accusations as psychological warfare. Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, noted that Iran has been stockpiling components for more than two decades. She warned that Tehran could feel existential pressure and cross the threshold into offensive use. A spokesperson for Netanyahu's office said Israel is prepared to confront the threat posed by Iran.