NCSC Predicts AI-Driven Ransomware Strike by 2028

The UK National Cyber Security Centre warned on Tuesday that a ransomware attack using AI-powered malware is highly likely to hit critical national infrastructure by 2028. The agency, part of the GCHQ intelligence agency, said the threat is not caused by new attack methods but by old weaknesses that can now be exploited at massive scale.

Richard Horne, the NCSC chief executive, noted that many British organizations and supply chains spent decades doing tech on the cheap. He argued this approach left systems vulnerable to discovery and exploitation by hostile actors. The agency's annual report confirmed that AI use by these actors will increase the scale and efficiency of their operations.

Horne is scheduled to speak later on Tuesday. He is expected to say that the UK faces a real prospect of a rise in cyber incidents in the coming months. He clarified that AI has not invented new ways to attack, but rather allows vulnerabilities tolerated for too long to be found and used quickly.

The report identified specific state threats. Horne said Russia is making sustained attempts to penetrate UK military networks. He added that Iran is conducting malicious cyber operations globally, targeting the UK and individuals it views as threats. China was named as the state best positioned to use AI against critical infrastructure. The NCSC described Chinese activity as the most sophisticated and sustained cyber challenge facing the country.

Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran have previously denied accusations of malevolent cyber actions. The NCSC report and Horne's speech follow recent hacking attacks on supermarkets across Europe. Those incidents exposed weaknesses in IT systems that could leave food off shelves and lights off.

Horne said organizations must take urgent action now. He challenged them to explain why they failed to act after seeing warning signs and understanding the risks. He stated that if businesses fail, it must be because they made the wrong choices despite the clear evidence.

The NCSC said it is highly likely that a ransomware attack involving AI-powered malware will occur by 2028. The agency emphasized that hostile actors are set to enhance the scale and efficiency of their operations during this period.