Yamal leads AI odds for 2026 Ballon d'Or ahead of London ceremony
A French data firm ranks the 19-year-old Barcelona winger first, but bookmakers favor Harry Kane, creating a split in pre-ceremony predictions.
By Miguel Navarro ·
Lamine Yamal is projected to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or according to a new AI model released by the French data firm Avisia, with the ceremony scheduled for less than 24 hours later at the London Palladium.
Avisia assigned Yamal a 23 percent probability of winning the award, which recognizes the best player of the 2025-26 season. Harry Kane followed as the second choice with a 21 percent probability. Kylian Mbappe and Rodri, the 2024 winner, were tied for third at 19 percent. Lionel Messi, who recently retired from international play, completed the top five with an 18 percent chance of claiming a ninth trophy.
The AI predictions diverge sharply from betting markets, where bookmakers list Kane as the outright favorite with approximately 70 percent odds. This discrepancy highlights the tension between raw statistical output and traditional award criteria in the final hours before the announcement.
Player endorsements have not resolved the debate. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone argued that Messi deserves the honor, stating that the Argentine played at his age after the World Cup without doubt. Former Italy international Marco Materazzi agreed, claiming Messi operates in a different league at 38. Jude Bellingham backed Kane, describing him as honest and hard-working, while Anthony Gordon praised Yamal's level at a young age. Aurelien Tchouameni supported Mbappe, citing an incredible season for the Frenchman.
Individual performance metrics favor Mbappe, who leads La Liga with 25 goals and the Champions League with 15. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for most World Cup goals with 12. Kane recorded 73 goals last season, the highest total by any player since Messi scored 82 in 2011-12. However, neither Mbappe nor Kane won a major trophy this year. Mbappe left Real Madrid without a silverware, and Kane won the Bundesliga but finished third with England.
Yamal's case relies on team success rather than personal goal tallies. He won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, despite injuries affecting his individual numbers. Historical patterns support this approach, as only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to win a major continental or world tournament in the same year.
If the 19-year-old wins, he would surpass Brazilian Ronaldo, who was 21 when he received the award in 1997.
Source: Al Jazeera
