Serbia's New Government Delays Foreign Policy Shifts for Domestic Overhaul

The Student List won control of Serbia in Sunday’s election, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. The party now faces a mandate to stabilize the country’s internal institutions before altering its external alliances. Leaders in Belgrade indicated that the transition will focus on domestic repair rather than immediate foreign policy pivots.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that regional relations are not the first item on the agenda. He noted that the new government must address a system that captured democratic institutions, along with issues in the judiciary, police, and media. Popov said that tidying up at home takes priority over solving problems with neighbors, despite the outgoing regime’s effort to undermine regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain the most complex. Popov described the relationship as marked by sharp words, with Vucic recently accusing Zagreb of organizing a color revolution during mass protests. He explained that the previous system functioned by producing internal and external enemies. Behind the public hostility, Belgrade and Zagreb quietly converged on Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Serbia backing Republika Srpska and Croatia favoring a third entity. Popov said the new government must repair these damaged ties to keep EU integration alive.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will change the least. He said that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbia’s foreign policy will remain in place. Moscow viewed Vucic as a known quantity, so Russian influence will take a hit from the end of uncritical media glorification and downgraded intelligence cooperation. However, Vuksanovic asserted that Serbia will not adopt a hawkish stance overnight because it still needs preferential gas prices and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved.

Vuksanovic added that the new government will likely maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. He questioned whether Serbia will continue indirect ammunition deliveries to Ukraine, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for his domestic rule.

Serbia’s relationship with Israel faces scrutiny. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that while cooperation will not be severed, the new government will re-examine recent contracts. These primarily involve Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian ally in Europe after Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. He added that Israel’s positioning toward Belgrade will depend on the outcome of its own upcoming elections.

Jaksic stated that Serbia’s strategy of sitting on multiple chairs will be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments, as the new administration prioritizes stabilizing the region and reviving hopes of joining the European Union.