Four House race types to watch Tuesday

Democrats appear poised to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday. Republicans enter Election Day with a narrow 218 to 214 seat advantage. However, they face headwinds as the party in power amid voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the ongoing war in Iran. A record number of congressional departures has also shaped this midterm cycle.

Early results from Kentucky's 5th and Indiana's 5th districts will provide the first national signals. Polls in these districts close in the 6 p.m. ET hour. President Trump won these seats by 15 and 17 points respectively in 2024. Both parties spent heavily in the Kentucky race, where Democrat Zach Dembo challenges Republican Ralph Alvarado. Florida will also report results quickly, with more than half a dozen toss-up districts. These include the open seat in FL-22, featuring Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar, and FL-25, where incumbent Democrat Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer.

Ad spending in the final seven days of the campaign indicates which races both parties considered critical. More than $10 million was spent in a handful of contests, according to AdImpact data. In Michigan, Democrat William Lawrence challenges incumbent Republican Tom Barrett in MI-07. Democrat Christina Hines runs against Republican Mike Bouchard in the open MI-10 seat. In New York, Republican Mike Lawler may hold NY-17 against Democrat Cait Conley due to a party ad advantage. Iowa's three competitive House races also saw high spending driven by concurrent governor and Senate contests.

Supreme Court rulings affecting the Voting Rights Act led Republican-led states to redraw House maps. These changes eliminated districts that typically favor Democrats. However, the current political environment has shifted the dynamics. Seats such as AL-02, held by Democrat Shomari Figures, and OH-09, held by Democrat Marcy Kaptur, are now considered toss-ups. In Texas, Latino voters may support Democratic candidates, potentially blocking Republican Eric Flores in TX-34 and Tano Tijerina in TX-28.

The depth of Democratic support in conservative areas will be revealed by results in districts previously considered safe for Republicans. In Arkansas's 2nd district, incumbent Republican French Hill faces Democrat Chris Jones in a Little Rock-based seat. Closer to $10 million was spent on this race in the final months, despite Trump winning it by 15 points in 2024. In Ohio, districts OH-10 and OH-15, held by Republicans Mike Turner and Mike Carey respectively, stretch between the suburbs and exurbs of Dayton and Columbus. These areas could swing away from the GOP due to competitive state races.

The outcome of the North Carolina Senate race, where former Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to defeat Michael Whatley, could impact House races like NC-03. Representative Greg Murphy's district absorbed more Democratic-leaning voters after recent redistricting. Other races to monitor include FL-27, NC-11, SC-01, VA-01, CO-08, PA-01, WA-03, WI-03, CA-22, FL-09, FL-14, TX-35, NC-09, NY-21, TN-09, and WA-05.