How 117 million independent voters could sway the 2026 midterms

Nearly 117 million US adults, or 44 percent of the population, identify as politically independent according to the Pew Research Center, a figure that exceeds the combined total of Democrats and Republicans.

In the 2026 midterm elections, 52 percent of likely independent voters support Democrats, while 39 percent back Republicans, according to polling firm Marist. Many of these voters are motivated by opposition to President Donald Trump, with independent respondents more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against the president as they are to vote for other reasons.

Despite the size of this group, independent candidates rarely win federal or statewide offices. Political scientist AJ Simmons noted that 2026 is one of the strongest cycles for these candidates in recent memory, but the winner-take-all system and single-member districts make it difficult for outsiders to concentrate enough support in a specific area to win a seat.

Money remains a primary barrier. The Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3 million for the 2026 cycle, while the Republican National Committee took in about $341 million. In contrast, independent candidates raise very little money and receive little public support, according to Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University.

Rick Bennett, the former Republican Party chair in Maine, is running to become the state's third independent governor. He argued that the electoral system is built to frustrate voter independence. Bennett is one of 11 independent or third-party candidates seeking gubernatorial or Senate seats that Simmons expects to surpass the 5 percent vote threshold.

Simmons identified Dan Osborn, a 51-year-old Navy veteran and independent Senate candidate in Nebraska, as the most likely alternative candidate to win a seat. The Nebraska Democratic Party did not field a replacement nominee after its candidate withdrew, leaving Osborn as the main challenger to Republican Pete Ricketts in a race deemed a toss-up by RealClearPolling.

In Montana, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar is running for the US Senate against Republican Kurt Alme. Bodnar is backed by the Independent Leadership Council, which has raised more than $10 million to support independent congressional candidates. The council also supports California Congressman Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party to seek re-election as an independent. Analysts say these candidates could influence the election by diverting resources from major parties in states like Idaho and South Dakota.