Netanyahu bloc projects 54 seats, short of 61 needed to govern

Initial counting by the Central Elections Committee placed Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party first with 27 seats. The broader bloc led by the prime minister was projected at 54 seats. This figure falls short of the 61 seats required to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot was projected at 50 seats. Four exit polls published on election night indicated a tight race. Kan 11 and Channel 13 both projected the two main blocs at 51 seats each. Channel 12 gave Netanyahu 52 seats against 49 for Eisenkot. Channel 15 offered the most favorable projection for the incumbent, showing 55 seats for his bloc and 49 for the opposition.

The voting system allocates seats proportionally to parties that clear the 3.25 percent national threshold. Since neither main bloc reached the majority mark in early counts, one side must secure additional partners to reach 61 lawmakers. Arab-led parties Ra'am and the Joint List are projected to win a combined 16 to 19 seats. These parties could hold the balance of power, but political barriers remain high. Netanyahu has previously called a coalition with Arab parties shameful, and leading figures in the Jewish-led opposition have also ruled out governing with them.

Netanyahu's bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich. It also includes Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir. Eisenkot's bloc consists of his Yashar party, the Together list associated with former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan's Democrats.

Once results are certified, the president will assign the mandate to the lawmaker deemed most likely to build a majority. That individual has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, another lawmaker may receive the mandate. If no one succeeds, Israel could face another election, a scenario that occurred repeatedly between 2019 and 2022.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 years across three stints, remains caretaker prime minister during negotiations. He is currently standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

Official results are scheduled for release on November 4. Coalition negotiations may take considerably longer than the certification period.