48 seats: The number keeping Israeli opposition awake

48 seats. That is the number of parliamentary seats held by the four Jewish opposition parties in Israel, a tally that leaves them five seats short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset. The leaders of these parties met in Herzliya on Tuesday to begin coalition talks, but they have not explained how they will bridge that gap without inviting the Arab parties into a cabinet, a move most Jewish opposition leaders have previously ruled out.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats. The two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, hold a combined 19 seats. If the Jewish opposition and the Arab parties cooperate, they command 67 seats. If they do not, no side holds a clear path to power. The opposition leaders pledged in a joint statement to act swiftly to replace the current government with a “Zionist” one based on four principles: recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, adhering to the Declaration of Independence, enforcing mandatory service for all, and dismantling Hamas’s military capabilities in Gaza.

The group includes Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot, B’Yachad chairman Naftali Bennett, Democrats head Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Liberman. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, the opposition leader in the outgoing Knesset, also attended. The leaders agreed to recommend that President Isaac Herzog give Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government. Their negotiating teams will begin drafting coalition agreements immediately.

A primary early target for the opposition is Amir Ohana, the current Knesset speaker and a Likud member. Replacing Ohana would allow the opposition to advance legislation that Netanyahu has blocked, including a state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack. The leaders discussed backing Lapid for the speakership but decided to finalize that choice by Monday.

Netanyahu’s coalition allies are moving in the opposite direction. Shas, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit confirmed on Tuesday that they will recommend Netanyahu for the premiership. United Torah Judaism remains undecided, with its leader Yaakov Asher speaking to Netanyahu on Tuesday amid speculation that the party might support an Eisenkot-led government. Netanyahu’s party accused the opposition of planning a “dangerous government” reliant on supporters of terrorism, specifically pointing to the Arab parties’ refusal to label Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations.

Yair Golan met with Arab party leaders Yousef Jabareen and Ahmad Tibi before the four-party session. The Democrats stated that the sides agreed to coordinate on forming a “change government.” Golan is the only leader in the opposition bloc who publicly supports including Arab parties in a coalition. Avigdor Liberman, meanwhile, stated on social media that a stable government could be formed without the Arab parties, though he did not specify how. The new Knesset is scheduled to convene next week.