Haredi parties hold 18 Knesset seats as key to Israel's next government

Gadi Eisenkot is set to receive the mandate to form Israel's next government, but his path to a stable majority hinges on a decision by religious parties controlling 18 Knesset seats. President Isaac Herzog begins coalition consultations on Wednesday, following a Monday announcement by Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman. Liberman stated he would recommend Eisenkot while ruling out a minority government reliant on Arab party support. He also confirmed he would not serve in a cabinet led by Benjamin Netanyahu.

The primary obstacle for Eisenkot is the willingness of Shas and United Torah Judaism to cross political lines. These parties are currently delaying their final decision while their rabbinical leadership, including Rabbis Dov Landau and Moshe Hillel Hirsch, returns from abroad. Political sources indicate that Eisenkot may offer generous concessions on the military enlistment of yeshiva students and budget allocations to secure their participation. If the haredi parties agree, Yisrael Beytenu can join the coalition. However, Liberman has held the portfolios of defense, finance, and foreign minister in the past, leading observers to predict he may demand a rotation agreement for the premiership.

Such a rotation demand could trigger internal disputes. Naftali Bennett, whose party won 12 seats, may resist an arrangement where Liberman, whose party holds seven seats, serves as prime minister while Bennett takes a ministerial role. This could lead to demands for a three-way rotation involving Eisenkot, Liberman, and Bennett. Negotiating the order and duration of each leader's term would add complexity to the process. Currently, these scenarios remain possibilities rather than formal demands.

Haredi sources describe their current position as an exceptional opportunity for leverage, noting that both political blocs require their support. One source stated, "It is better for everyone to remain in suspense and uncertainty, and for each side to think that we have already reached an agreement with the other side." Behind this public ambiguity, some haredi figures assess that the likelihood of joining a government led by Eisenkot is low. Shas chairman Arye Deri has previously expressed opposition to a repeat of the haredi participation in Yitzhak Rabin's government during the Oslo Accords period, emphasizing the party's commitment to the Right.

If the haredi parties decline to join an Eisenkot-led government, the option of a minority government dependent on Arab support returns to the table. Liberman has rejected this possibility, even for a temporary administration. Without Yisrael Beytenu or the haredi bloc, Eisenkot would struggle to secure a stable majority. If he fails, the mandate may pass to Netanyahu. Likud sources believe Netanyahu might agree to a unity government with Eisenkot if the 21-day period for Knesset nomination approaches, as this could prevent a split in the anti-Netanyahu bloc. Eisenkot would then face the choice of serving alongside his rival or risking another election.