Ad spending reveals 70 competitive House races ahead of Nov. 3 vote
Campaign data shows both parties pouring millions into districts where 2024 results were mixed, with Michigan and North Carolina seeing the highest costs.
By Elizabeth Turner ·
Final week ad data indicates the core battle in the House is no longer about preventing a Democratic gain, but rather determining the extent of that shift. An analysis by NPR identifies 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures in messaging for the final days before the Nov. 3 election.
The financial commitment is heaviest in districts currently considered toss ups. Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida each have districts with more than $10 million in ad spending planned. Specific races in Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District are projected to exceed $12 million each. Other high-cost targets include Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York's 17th District, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts.
The Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and 30 others as potentially competitive but leaning toward Republicans. This data suggests the Republican hold of 218 seats, currently a narrow advantage over the Democrats' 214, is likely to end.
Recent polling from the NPR, PBS News, and Marist finds a 10-point Democratic advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. This national trend has made more seats competitive than previous midterms, even before accounting for individual candidate quality.
Several districts that voted for one party in the 2024 presidential election but the other for their House representative have shifted toward Democrats. This includes seats held by Democratic Representatives Adam Gray in California, Nellie Pou in New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington. It also includes the district of retiring Republican Representative Don Bacon in Nebraska.
AdImpact data shows Republicans have reduced ad reservations in these four specific districts in recent weeks. The shifting map is partly due to mid-decade redistricting following a Supreme Court decision that weakened parts of the Voting Rights Act.
Republicans redrew boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democratic Representatives Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Democrats performed similar maneuvers in California, affecting districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, as well as independent Kevin Kiley.
Only Figures and Soto are currently in districts that rate as favoring Republicans. The 70 races with six-figure spending from both parties voted for Donald Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Voters cite cost of living, gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran as primary concerns.
Source: WCLK
