House control likely shifts to Democrats as ad spending surges

The central question of the November 3 midterm election is no longer whether Democrats will take the House, but by how much. New data indicates the party in power is likely to lose its narrow advantage, as both sides pour millions of dollars into the final week of campaigning.

An NPR analysis identifies 70 districts where both parties have committed at least six figures to their final messaging. This expansive battleground includes high-cost contests in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida, where spending exceeds $10 million per district. It also covers deep-red areas in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, as well as districts where recent redistricting may have worked against Republican interests.

Republicans currently hold a 218 to 214 seat majority in the House. However, the Cook Political Report rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. The report lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as potentially competitive but leaning toward the GOP. In the 10 districts where voters split their 2024 presidential and House tickets, most have shifted toward Democrats, prompting Republican ad reductions in seats held by Reps. Adam Gray, Nellie Pou, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez, as well as retiring Rep. Don Bacon.

Voter sentiment appears to favor the challengers. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats with a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living remains the top issue, with gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran driving economic anxiety. A record number of retirement announcements and primary upsets have further weakened incumbent standing.

The electoral map was scrambled this year by a Supreme Court decision that allowed mid-decade redistricting. Republicans adjusted boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur, Don Davis, Shomari Figures, and Darren Soto. Democrats made similar changes in California, affecting seats held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, and Darrell Issa, and Independent Kevin Kiley. Only Figures and Soto are in districts currently rated as favoring Republicans.

The most expensive races in the final stretch are Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District, each with over $12 million in planned spending. Other major investments target Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts; New York’s 17th District; and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts. Spending is also heavy in districts redrawn to minimize Democratic power, such as Alabama’s 2nd and Tennessee’s 9th, and in districts where Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024, like Kentucky’s 6th and Arkansas’ 2nd.

On average, the 70 districts with substantial spending from both parties voted for Trump by 9 points in the 2024 election. Sixty of these districts are priorities for both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. The heavy investment reflects the impact of the Trump administration’s unpopularity over the last year, even as some Democratic priority districts that gave Trump nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2024 see little to no ad spending from either side.