Democrats poised to seize House as ad spending peaks in 70 districts
Cook Political Report rates Democrats favored in 220 seats, while heavy spending in Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida signals the final push for control.
By Zara Ahmed ·
Democrats are set to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives as the midterm election enters its final week. The Cook Political Report now rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats, effectively ending the narrow 218-214 seat advantage held by Republicans. The report lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as competitive but leaning toward the GOP.
This shift reflects a midterm environment that typically disfavors the party in power. AdImpact data shows both parties investing at least six figures in 70 districts during the final days of messaging. The average of these 70 races voted for Donald Trump by nine points in 2024. The spending surge indicates a fight over the magnitude of the Democratic gain rather than the outcome of the chamber control.
The most expensive contests are located in Michigan and North Carolina. Michigan’s 7th District and North Carolina’s 1st District each have over $12 million in planned spending. Other high-cost races include Florida’s 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York’s 17th District, and Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd Districts. These areas are considered key battlegrounds where the final margin of victory remains uncertain.
Redistricting has complicated the map for both parties. A Supreme Court decision that rolled back parts of the Voting Rights Act allowed Republicans to shift boundaries to add conservative voters to districts held by Democrats. This move targeted seats held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Don Davis in North Carolina, Shomari Figures in Alabama, and Darren Soto in Florida. Only Figures and Soto currently face districts rated as favoring Republicans.
Democrats executed similar redistricting moves in California. They altered boundaries in districts held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. This strategic reshaping has created a broader field of competitive seats. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot.
Voter sentiment is driven by cost of living concerns, including rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran. A record number of Congressional retirement announcements has also amplified anti-incumbency trends in primary elections. In four specific districts where voters split their 2024 tickets between a presidential candidate and a House nominee from different parties, Republicans have reduced ad reservations in recent weeks. These districts are held by Reps. Adam Gray, Nellie Pou, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez, while retiring Rep. Don Bacon left his seat.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifies several
Source: Central Florida Public Media
