Late poll shows Flanagan leading in Minnesota Senate race as Vance cancels visit

Voters in Minnesota face a different picture of the Senate race than they did just weeks ago, according to a survey released Wednesday. The data suggests Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has opened a substantial lead over her opponent in the contest to fill the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith.

A New York Times/Siena poll found Flanagan ahead of former sportscaster Michele Tafoya by a 14-point margin. Flanagan received 54% support compared to 40% for Tafoya. The survey indicates the Democrat leads across most demographic groups. Flanagan outperforms Tafoya among younger and older voters, white and non-white voters, and those with and without college degrees.

The results contrast with earlier measurements from September and late October. Those polls showed the candidates running much closer, with some showing them nearly tied. Tafoya disputed the new findings in an interview on Fox News. She described the survey as a huge outlier. The poll surveyed 752 registered voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9% to 4.2%.

Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times, acknowledged uncertainty in the numbers. He noted that Minnesota does not require voters to register by party, making it difficult for pollsters to gauge sentiment accurately. Cohn warned that the result could be a warning sign that pollsters are undercounting white working-class voters. He compared the situation to a previous erroneous poll in Iowa. Despite these concerns, Cohn stated the race might not be a true battleground.

The campaign dynamics have shifted in the days leading up to the Nov. 3 election. Flanagan has campaigned with Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Chris Murphy, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Her strategy focuses on linking Tafoya to President Donald Trump. Tafoya has attempted to position herself as independent from both the president and the Republican Party. Trump endorsed Tafoya twice and suggested on Truth Social that he would interfere if she is not declared a winner on election night. He wrote that the only way she can lose is if officials cheat by playing games with the ballots.

Vice President JD Vance planned to travel to St. Cloud on Friday to discuss fraud with members of a White House task force. The visit was announced on Thursday but cancelled just hours later. The White House did not provide a reason for the abrupt change. The cancellation occurred shortly after the new poll released, which showed concerns about corruption and fraud as the second most important issue for voters, behind the economy.

Spending in the race remains low compared to other national contests. Flanagan had spent about $11 million and Tafoya nearly $9 million as of Oct. 14, according to the Federal Election Commission. Both campaigns received about $2 million in outside support. This modest spending reflects the view that Minnesota is not a priority target for national parties. The candidates have exchanged attacks on personal matters. Tafoya questioned Flanagan's wealth growth while earning a $129,000 annual salary. Flanagan stated her net worth increased after the deaths of her mother and aunt, who left her an inheritance. Tafoya reported that she and her husband, a private wealth advisor, hold assets valued between $17 million and $33 million.