Maricopa County Scores Perfect 100 on National Election Risk Index

Researchers at the Voting Rights Lab have designated Maricopa County as an "extreme risk" zone for election interference. The organization released the 2026 Election Risk Heat Map, a national index that scores counties based on their susceptibility to manipulation of election outcomes. Only three counties in the United States received the highest possible score of 100. Maricopa joined Georgia's Fulton and Forsyth counties in this top tier.

The score reflects specific structural and political factors within the county. The lab evaluated metrics including race competitiveness, the volume of election deniers among officials, and the frequency of related litigation. Maricopa County received a perfect five out of five on the local election denial risk metric. This score accounts for the presence of election deniers in high-profile races, including the governorship and the county Recorder's office. The county also received a perfect score on the election litigation environment index due to high activity in court cases.

Data from the 2022 and 2024 election cycles inform these risk assessments. In 2022, nearly 84% of voters in the county cast ballots by mail. In 2024, election officials required approximately 121 hours to count 95% of all ballots. The county also maintains a formal relationship with Immigration and Customs Enforcement through its jail system. These factors, combined with the county's status as the fourth-largest municipality in the country, contribute to its high risk profile.

Victoria Lopez, executive director of the ACLU of Arizona, stated that the votes of Maricopa County residents are highly consequential. She noted that risks and threats to the right to cast a ballot are present. Lopez said the organization is aware of the political pressure placed on Arizona elections over the past six years. She described a playbook of election denialism that undermines voter confidence and election administration systems.

Recent administrative issues in the county support the lab's findings. Earlier this year, County Recorder Justin Heap used the federal SAVE database to flag 60 voters as potential non-citizens. An investigation by County Attorney Rachell Mitchell determined only eight were non-citizens. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes sued Heap after he refused to restore the registration status of 24 citizen voters. A court mediation in late October resolved the issue and restored their status.

Other operational errors have occurred in the lead-up to Election Day. Runbeck Election Services mailed over 3,000 ballots early. The Recorder's office phone line briefly broadcast the incorrect Election Day date. Heap claimed the Phoenix USPS processing facility was shut down, forcing ballots to be rerouted through San Diego, a claim disputed by Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and USPS. The ACLU of Arizona reported that poll workers at one vote center told voters they needed identification to drop off ballots, a claim Heap called baseless. Additionally, the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center was briefly locked down due to suspicious activity nearby.

The ACLU of Arizona is deploying a $400,000 advertising campaign to address these risks. The organization aims to remind local election officials that the group is monitoring their actions. The campaign slogan reads, "Arizona voters, not politicians, decide elections." The ad buy includes online placements, highway billboards, and LED billboard trucks.

The organization has also arranged aerial banners to be pulled by small planes. One banner flew over Arizona State University's football game against Kansas on Saturday. Other advertisements are located in downtown Phoenix near the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors building and the Tabulation and Election Center. Lopez said the goal is to ensure Arizonans have clear, accurate information about their right to vote.

The ACLU is working with coalition partners to share information with voters and monitor elected officials. The organization is prepared to address election administration issues on Election Day, such as polling locations not opening on time or closing too early. Staff are also monitoring signature verification issues and any unlawful purge of voters.

The lab's index serves as a data-driven assessment of the county's vulnerability. It moves beyond anecdotal evidence to quantify the risks associated with the current election administration structure in Maricopa County.