UCLA Data Show 42% of Trump’s CA Voter List Missing

A legal analysis submitted to a federal court on Saturday indicates that more than 42 percent of the names on the Trump administration's list of likely non-citizens in California are not currently registered voters in the state.

The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, or CHIRLA, filed the analysis conducted by two data scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles. The researchers examined the list delivered to California in early October, which identified 20,930 individuals as likely non-citizens. Their review found that 8,880 of those names did not exist on California's current voter files.

The filing also noted that thousands of potentially eligible U.S. citizens were incorrectly identified as ineligible. Many names on the list were confirmed as citizens or corresponded to registered citizens. The analysis argues that the administration's demands, backed by threats of criminal and civil prosecution, endanger the voting rights of CHIRLA's members and clients.

The lawsuit, filed on October 15, seeks to have California sequester ballots from those identified on the list. This would prevent those votes from being tallied in the midterm election results. The legal battle is unfolding in the final days before Tuesday's election, which will determine control of the U.S. Congress and key state offices.

President Donald Trump has expressed concern that a loss of Republican majorities in Congress could lead to his impeachment. He has frequently targeted California, the most populous state, in his criticism of recent elections. The state is a traditional Democratic stronghold that will elect 52 members to the 435-seat House of Representatives.

Trump previously accused California of cheating during the June 2 primary elections after several Republican candidates underperformed. His administration has threatened state officials with prosecution over the potential for non-citizen voting while vigorously pursuing the lawsuit in federal court.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the administration's complaint a second time on Friday. The court majority ruled the complaint unconstitutional, stating that it declined to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution's plain text.

Critics, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, have cited the Elections Clause in their rebuttal. The clause assigns election administration solely to the states, although Congress may pass governing regulations. All 50 states prohibit non-citizen voting in federal elections and maintain measures to prevent voter fraud, which is considered rare.

Other states that received similar lists have found substantial errors in the administration's accounting. For example, Nevada determined that none of the names on its list were non-citizen voters. These findings have raised concerns that eligible citizens may have their votes denied if the administration prevails in its California lawsuit.

The new filing was co-signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate to succeed Newsom as governor. The data scientists concluded that the review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that the current legal strategy places eligible voters at risk.