House Democrats Eye 220 Seats as Ad Spend Hits $12M in Key Districts
Cook Political Report data shows Democrats favored in 220 districts, while 70 races see six-figure spending from both parties.
By Zara Ahmed ·
The Cook Political Report lists Democrats as favored in 220 House seats, a count that dwarfs the party's current 214-member minority. Republicans hold a 218-214 seat advantage in the chamber, but the latest ratings suggest that lead is likely to disappear in the November 3 election. Seventeen districts are rated as toss-ups, and another 30 are competitive but lean toward the GOP.
Ad spending data indicates the final competitive landscape includes 70 districts where both parties are investing at least six figures per district into their final days of messaging. The most expensive battles are in Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District, where more than $12 million in spending is planned. Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York's 17th District, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts also see heavy investment.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats have a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, with rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran factoring into economic worries. A record number of Congressional retirement announcements has also amplified an anti-incumbency streak in primary elections.
Mid-decade redistricting after a Supreme Court decision that rolled back part of the Voting Rights Act scrambled the map. Republicans shifted boundary lines to add more conservative voters into districts held by Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Don Davis (NC-01), Shomari Figures (AL-02), and Darren Soto (FL-09). Democrats performed a similar maneuver in California for districts held by Republican Reps. James Gallagher (CA-01), David Valadao (CA-22), Ken Calvert (CA-41), Darrell Issa (CA-48), and independent Kevin Kiley (CA-06). Only Figures and Soto are in districts rated as favoring Republicans.
Most of the seats that saw narrow margins in the 2024 presidential election cycle have shifted toward the Democrats. This includes the 10 districts that voted for one party's presidential candidate and the other party's House nominee. Seats held by Democratic Reps. Adam Gray (CA-13), Nellie Pou (NJ-09), and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez (WA-03), and retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02), have seen Republicans slash ad reservations in recent weeks according to AdImpact data.
The 70 races with six-figure spending from each party voted for Trump by an average of 9 points in 2024. Sixty districts are listed as priorities of both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms. Many of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Districts In Play gave Trump closer to 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little to no ad spend from either party.
Source: WBHM
